As of mid-June 2026, the global oil market has undergone a dramatic shift compared with the period from March to April. During the height of tensions surrounding Iran, crude prices surged to between $90 and $100 per barrel. Today, however, markets are showing signs of stabilization. The Department of Energy (DOE), which is responsible for monitoring these critical economic indicators and assessing their impact on consumers, has been closely tracking the developments.
Copy link 
Narito ang mga winning combination para sa 4D Lotto, Mega Lotto 6/45 at Grand Lotto 6/55 para sa araw ng Miyerkoles, Disyembre 17, 2025, base sa 9 p.m. draw ng Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO).
Brent crude, the global benchmark, is currently trading between $85 and $89 per barrel. International analysts point to a sharp decline following reports of a possible easing of tensions between the United States and Iran. According to market data published by Trading Economics, Brent fell to approximately $88.6 per barrel, roughly 16% to 18% lower than the previous month. Analysts also noted that expectations of unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have played a major role in driving prices downward.
Market Outlook Improves as Motorists Benefit from Lower Prices
Because the Philippines imports nearly all of its petroleum requirements, domestic fuel prices remain highly sensitive to global market movements. Any geopolitical developments in the Middle East can quickly affect fuel costs for Filipino households and businesses.
At the beginning of June, consumers received one of the largest fuel price rollbacks of the year. Gasoline prices declined by ₱4.76 per liter, diesel by ₱9.26 per liter, and kerosene by ₱10.86 per liter. The Department of Energy confirmed that, following these adjustments, retail fuel prices had moved closer to levels seen before the escalation of the Middle East crisis. The agency also stated this week that fuel prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the coming days, providing welcome relief for motorists and the transportation sector.
If a diplomatic agreement involving Iran is successfully implemented and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues without disruption, Brent crude could remain comfortably within the $80 to $90 per barrel range. Under this baseline scenario, the Philippines could see either modest fuel price reductions or continued price stability during the second half of June, with weekly adjustments likely remaining between ₱0.50 and ₱2.00 per liter.
Experts Assess Risks as Institutions Offer Forecasts
On the other hand, if sanctions on Iran's oil industry are eased and additional supplies return to the global market, Brent crude could fall further to between $75 and $80 per barrel. However, analysts warn that if diplomatic negotiations collapse or if new disruptions emerge along major shipping routes, oil prices could quickly climb back above $100 per barrel, leading to renewed increases in fuel costs.
Major financial institutions continue to monitor these risks closely. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have outlined scenarios in which oil prices could exceed $110 per barrel if supply disruptions become prolonged or severe.
Long-term forecasts for the remainder of 2026 remain divided. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average around $90 per barrel during the fourth quarter, while the World Bank projects an average price near $94 per barrel. In contrast, J.P. Morgan has adopted a more cautious outlook, forecasting an average of approximately $60 per barrel due to expanding supply, softer demand, and broader global economic factors.
Despite these differing projections, the Philippine government has instructed relevant agencies to prepare contingency measures should market conditions deteriorate again. Policymakers remain mindful of past inflationary pressures that affected consumers during previous periods of elevated global oil prices, emphasizing the importance of maintaining readiness in an increasingly unpredictable energy market.
