Pump prices of diesel and kerosene are expected to decrease tomorrow, June 16, while gasoline prices may either increase or decrease, according to the Department of Energy.
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In an official administrative announcement, the department noted that diesel prices would roll back by P3.71 to P5.71/l, while kerosene prices may decrease by P0.50 to P2.50/l. Meanwhile, gasoline prices may either increase by P1.68/l or decrease by P0.32/l.
According to the agency, the expected adjustments are still being driven by movements in the global oil supply chain due to the conflict between the United States and Iran. If the volatile geopolitical landscape in West Asia stabilizes, local motorists who have struggled to cope up with soaring transport costs would finally experience a respite from inflationary pressures.
Transition to Normalization
Energy Undersecretary Alessandro Sales said oil and fuel prices in the Philippines may return to pre-war levels, or around P50 to P60/l, after six to twelve months. This welcome development was reported after the United States and Iran agreed to a peace deal that is expected to end the nearly four-month conflict in West Asia, which heavily disrupted the global oil supply chain.
However, the energy undersecretary cautioned that pump prices would not immediately drop even if the peace deal succeeds, as oil facilities and supply networks would also need time to restart operations.
"It's really just an issue of restarting the supply that was disrupted by the war. The return of supply is not instantaneous," Sales said.
Unless regional production lines are fully restored, downstream market adjustments would not immediately result to lower domestic retail overheads.
Domestic Inventory Levels
Defensive steps are being taken by the department to ensure that the domestic supply of petroleum architectures remains stable during this period of transition. The agency reported that the country's current supply of oil and fuel products could last an average of 46.37day as of June 12.
A comprehensive inventory breakdown provided by the department indicated that gasoline supply could last for 44.98day, diesel for 43.06day and kerosene for 139.12day. Furthermore, jet fuel supply could last for 78.33day, fuel oil for 45.50day and liquefied petroleum gas for 45day.
Inflation slowed to 6.8% in May 2026, driven primarily by lower transport costs and fuel price rollbacks, though the central bank warns that persistent pressures from food prices and a weaker peso necessitate continued fiscal vigilance to keep inflation within target.
